The Sun Does Something Weird Before It Opens Its Solar Flares

Powerful solar flares—sudden bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun—can shoot dangerous levels of energy strong enough to reach Earth’s atmosphere. Predicting solar flares is not as simple as predicting a sunny day.

A team of researchers led by heliophysicist Emily Mason of Predictive Sciences Inc. has identified a type of solar activity in the Sun’s atmosphere that may precede possible explosions on the Sun. Their research was detailed on December 6 to learn was published in Astrophysical Journal Letters and presented at the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society on Jan. 15, have important implications for efforts to ensure the safety of astronauts and space assets.

Indeed, predicting solar flares is critical to protecting both humans and technology from the Sun’s volatile outbursts. Solar flares can disrupt Earth’s satellite communications, GPS systems and power grids, while exposing astronauts and spacecraft to dangerous levels of radiation. A reliable early warning system is thus a welcome tool to reduce the dangers of space weather.

Using NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, Mason and his colleagues analyzed the vibrations of arcuate structures in the Sun’s outer atmosphere known as the corona during up to 50 intense solar flares. Coronal loops exist in the same magnetically active regions of the Sun that cause solar flares. NASA statement. The researchers observed that the brightness of coronal loops in extreme ultraviolet light varied more in the hours preceding a nearby large flare than for coronal loops above nonflare regions.

“We found that some of the extreme ultraviolet light over the active regions flickers erratically in the hours leading up to the solar flare,” Mason said in a statement. “The results are really important for understanding flares and could improve our ability to predict hazardous space weather.”

The researchers suggest that by observing ultraviolet brightness variations in the coronal loops, future solar flares can be predicted two to six hours in advance with 60 to 80 percent accuracy, which, if proven correct, would be more accurate than previously tested forecasting methods.

“The Sun’s corona is a dynamic environment, and each solar flare is like a snowflake — each flare is unique,” said Kara Kniezewski of the Air Force Institute of Technology, who also led the study. “We find that looking for periods of ‘chaotic’ behavior in coronal loop emission, rather than specific trends, provides a more consistent metric.”

Vadim Uritsky of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, who also participated in the study, envisions creating “a well-tested and ideally simpler (solar flare) indicator to make the leap from research to operations.” The researchers also suggest that the stronger the flare, the earlier the tremor peaks, but they admit that further analysis is needed to confirm this possibility.

Scientists have been trying to predict solar flares for decades. If recent research is correct, the vibrating coronal loops could essentially function as flashing warning signals for humans and technology.