The leaders of ‘Strongman’ of Europe no longer look so strong

The so -called “strong” leaders in Europe, most of whom are allied with the tastes of US president Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin de Russia, look harder, say analysts, with their popularity decreasing before the key elections .

The inauguration of Trump was expected to give a nationalist-populist leaders and nationalist leaders such as the Viktor Orban de Hungary, Robert Fico de Slovakia, the AFD party of the right of Germany and Marine Le Pen and its National Rally Party and its National Rally In France. But such impulse is not an inevitable conclusion, since domestic pressures and economic challenges weigh on their popularity and power.

“Donald Trump’s re -election for a second term in the United States seemed to be a claron call for a structural political change towards equally populist magic and populist movements throughout Europe,” Timothy Ash, senior strata of emerging markets of RBC Bluebay ASSET MANAGEMENT OF ASSET MANAGEMENT, he said in comments sent by email on Thursday. Maga refers to “Make America Great Again”, a slogan that has historically supported Trump’s nationalist campaign.

“Actually, what we are seeing is a somewhat mixed image throughout Europe, and in reality with many of Trump’s apostles on the back foot,” Ash said.

Both leaders have also been vocally critical to provide more military and financial assistance to Ukraine and have threatened to refuse to support an extension of sanctions to Russia, although, last Monday, Orban retreated that position after receiving guarantees of energy security for the block.

Orban and Fico are seeing the decrease in popularity grades and a growing dissatisfaction with their leadership between the public and in Parliament. Orban survey qualifications have been falling, while those of their main political rival Péter Magyar have been increasing. Fico, meanwhile, avoided a vote of distrust motion in January after his political opponents left the move.

Both men could face defeat at the polls in the near future, analysts say, and parliamentary elections will be held next year in Hungary and in 2027 in Slovakia, although a vote could take place before.

“The future of the Fico government is increasing Andrius Tursa, advisor to Central and Eastern Europe at the Risk Consultant Teneo, Teneo, said in comments sent by email.

“FICO himself has mentioned the possibility of an early parliamentary choice in spring unless its coalition partners resolve internal differences,” he added.

Orban de Hungary is under growing domestic pressure this year, with The rapid increase in the popularity of opposition leader Peter Maly and his Tisza partyindicating that the populist Anti-EU could lose the 2026 elections.

The November surveys showed Tisza with a support from 35% to 45% among the determined voters, of approximately four to six percentage points ahead of the Fidesz Party of Orban, said Eurasia Group.

“The Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, will face his most important limitations since he will assume the position in 2010 … This will further undermine his ability to kidnap, go alone to drive, the EU agenda as the preeminent populist leader of the preeminent populist Block, “analysts of the political risk consulting said in a note in January.

The Eurasia group said that Orban and Fidesz would probably continue to attack Magyar’s credibility and could follow fiscal flexibility aimed at strengthening the support of Fidesz’s central voting groups.

“However, this will happen in the context of a weakened economy, a situation that the EU is exploiting when retaining funds and further increase investors’ concerns. These conditions are also causing orban to depend more financially on China at one time in a moment in a moment That Trump is likely to push the EU towards an American style decoupling, “they noted.

Los partidos populistas en toda la UE han ganado significativamente popularidad durante la última década, con el aumento de la prominencia del partido Afd de Alemania y el rally nacional de Francia, los cuales, los cuales, After undeniable electoral successesNow it exerts a considerable influence on the respective political directions of its national governments.

The feeling of Euro-Escepetism and anti-immigration was largely driven by public dissatisfaction with the EU response to undocumented migration to the continent.

The next elections in Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic could see that the anti-EU populist parties gain more land this year, but the anti-EU governments will continue to be very frequent of the necessary blocking minority in the European Council to seriously alter the EU decision making, Eurasia Grupo noted:

“Where they are in the government, they have tended to change towards the political center, with the remarkable exception of Hungary. Much of the perspectives of the extreme right will depend on whether governments can find more effective ways to deal with the migration crisis of migration Slow combustion that is the strongest promoter of populist support in the EU, “analysts said.