What roles are Ruanda, Burundi, Uganda?

The seizure of M23 rebels of vast extensions of land in the minerals east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has triggered a humanitarian and diplomatic crisis, which involves several neighboring countries.

An alarming number of African countries already has troops deployed in the conflict zone, which has a long history of external interference.

Dr Congo is such a vast country, two thirds of the size of Western Europe, which is a member of the East and South Africa blocks.

The two regional groups are joining strength to celebrate an emergency summit on Saturday to try to end the fight.

So who are the main players and what do they want?

First and main is the Congolese president Félix Tshisekedi. He wants to recover the lost territory for the rebels, including the largest rubber city, and prevent them from taking over.

He blames the leader Ruanda Paul Kagame for supporting the M23 with weapons and troops, accusing Kigali of invading Congolese territory with the aim of looting the country’s mineral wealth and orchestrating the change of regime.

The case that Rwanda supports the M23 offensive is based on the evidence presented in a UN report and widely accepted by many African and Western governments, which have demanded that Kagame withdraw their forces.

However, for the frustration of Tshisikedi, none has matched his rhetoric with the action and responded to Kinshasa calls to sanctions and other difficult measures.

The Congolese leader is also worried about maintaining his seat.

“I think the political survival of his government is at stake,” said Jason Stearns, former UN researcher at Dr. Congo and currently a professor at Simon Fraser University.

There is concern that the M23 campaign can be emboldened to internal opposition forces or trigger a coup d’etat in its army, which has the reputation of being fragmented and undermined by corruption.

In this conflict, the leader of Rwanda, Kagame, is the center of attention, but has practiced to divert it.

It has a long history of military intervention within the DR Congo linked to the sequelae of the 1994 Ruanda genocide.

Ruanda does not admit to providing military support to the M23, but repeatedly insists that he will do anything necessary to defend himself.

Kagame argues that Rwanda’s priority is to destroy an armed group formed by the Hutu genocide perpetrators, who massacred the Rwanda tutsis and then fled to what is now east of Dr Congo.

He accused Dr Congo’s army of joining forces with them and others not only kill not only the Congolese tutsis, whom M23 claims to be fighting to protect, but to threaten Rwanda.

At the diplomatic level, Rwanda wants confirmation of his narrative: that the conflict is a Congolese problem, and Kigali is simply defending his borders against the spill of a civil war.

It is demanding that Kinshasa negotiate directly with the M23, what he refuses to do.

But what it really seeks, said Stearns, is “maintaining a sphere of influence on Eastern Dr Congo.”

Rwanda has economic and security interests.

Kigali denies the UN evidence that he contradicts large amounts of gold and other metals of the east of Dr Congo and sells them as his own. But access to the mineral wealth of Dr. Congo has been a driver of the conflict in the region for decades.

This time there are others, especially the personal animosity between Kagame and Tshisekedi.

“Kagame wants to teach Tshisekedi a lesson about who is the strong type in the block,” said Richard Moncrieff, who monitors the region of the great Lakes of Africa for the International Crisis Group (ICG).

The Ruandes “will simply continue to fight until you make concessions and … give them enough loose rein (the eastern province of) Kivu del Norte,” he added.

Rwanda sees the army of Burundi as another threat of security in the east of Dr. Congo.

The nation that limits with Rwanda and Dr. Congo has had thousands of soldiers there for years. They went to hunt Burundian rebels, but now they are supporting Kinshasa’s army in battles against M23.

Relationships between Rwanda and Burundi are hostile. The two countries have a similar ethnic makeup, but unlike Rwanda, the majority hutus are in power in Burundi. Both countries have accused of trying to overthrow their respective governments.

The president of Burundi, Evariste Undayishimye, has published a strongly written warning on social networks.

“If Ruanda continues to conquer,” he wrote, “I know that the war will even arrive in Burundi … One day he (Kagame) wants to come to Burundi, we will not accept that. The war will extend.”

The threat would increase if the M23 continues its rubber advance to the province of Kivu South Kivu closer to the Burundi border, which is where its forces are parked.

“What Burundi seeks here is the survival of the regime,” said Stearns.

“Burundi is worried that if Rwanda’s troops … extend their influence to the south of Kivu that could destabilize the government in spark plug. What is at stake here is to stop this rebellion before he gets too close home.”

Some fear a repetition of the two wars that wrapped the region at the end of the 1990s, which attracted in nine different countries and, according to the reports, led to millions of deaths.

This time, direct confrontations between the two armies could extend the conflict of the DR Congo beyond its borders.

Uganda is not directly involved, but also has troops in the east of the DR Congo.

They are helping the Congolese government with a different security threat: hunting militants with Ugandes origins that are connected to the Islamic State Group.

But Uganda’s role is confusing: he is working with the Congolese, while supposedly provides at least an accomplice support for M23. UN experts report that they have allowed them to use the Uganda territory as a rear base and supply route.

Kambela denies it strongly. But he has responded to the M23 offensive placing his troops in a “front defensive position”, to prevent other armed groups from exploiting the crisis, he said.

Local residents reported having seen Ugandes soldiers moving towards the conflict zone, increasing the fears of a regional escalation.

Like Rwanda, Uganda has entered the east of Dr. Congo in the past claiming to protect her borders. But he is also accused of looting natural resources, especially gold.

Analysts expect their economic interests to safeguard while watching the Ruandses.

“It is very clear that Uganda wants to retain her own influence on the east of Dr. Congo and not be expelled by her rival in Rwanda,” says Mr. Moncrieff of ICG.

South Africa has contributed most of the troops to a regional force in southern Africa that fights along with the Congolese army and has suffered great losses.

But it has also been pushed to the headlines due to a surprisingly vitriolic exchange between Kigali and Johannesburg.

The South Africans blamed the death of 14 of their soldiers to the Defense Forces of Rwanda, to which President Cyril Ramaphosa learned the “RDF militia”.

His defense minister said he had warned Kagame that any additional shooting would be taken as a declaration of war.

This enraged the president of Rwanda, who said that the story of his conversation was a “lie” and called the South Africans a “belligerent” force that the Dr Congo must leave.

This is the most acute end of a broad division between the Eastern Africa Community (EAC) and the South African Development Community (SADC).

The EAC supports Rwanda’s call for direct conversations between Kinshasa and the M23.

While SADC condemns RDF attacks against their soldiers, including Tanzania and Malawa’s troops, and has reaffirmed its commitment to independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Dr. Congo.