Tariffs, trade and visas to master conversations

When the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, visits Washington and meets President Donald Trump at the end of this week, there will be some warm hugs and shared laughter. But that will not be all.

Trump and Modi have developed a good personal relationship over the years, marked by high profile meetings and joint appearances.

Since his first meeting in Washington in 2017, his link has grown through other events, including joint appearances in mass demonstrations in Houston and Ahmedabad. His chemistry comes from shared worldviews and politics and a mutual strategic approach to counteract China, a concern that has also strengthened the broader association between the United States and India.

It is not surprising that Trump has often criticized India, but has never criticized Modi.

And so, during Modi’s visitThe two leaders will probably spend time mapping the next steps in the strategic association between the United States and India, which is already in a good place.

According to the reports, Modi will meet with several members of the Trump cabinet, as well as American business leaders and members of the Indian-American community.

You can also meet Spacex and Tesla Elon Musk chief. Modi, anxious to expand the flourishing electric vehicle sector of India, would be happy if Musk opened a Tesla factory in India.

And yet, the Trump-Modi coexistence and the intoxicating talk of the strategic association can mask an alerting reality: during Modi’s visit, the transactional side of the relationship will enter relief with each leader, especially Trump, armed with a variety of demands.

Delhi knows Trump well. Many of the current Modi cabinet ministers also served during their previous mandate, which overlapped with part of the Trump’s first administration. That familiarity has been on display since the inauguration of Trump last month: Delhi has publicly indicated Your willingness to reduce tariffs, recover undocumented Indian immigrants and buy American oil.

Ha Down Some rates and withdrawals 104 undocumented Indians, with the first plane That arrives In India last week. These preventive steps are intended to prevent Trump from making specific demands of India and reducing the probability of tensions with the new Trump administration.

Even so, Trump can ask Modi to make additional tariff reductions, to move away more in a commercial deficit of US goods and services He approached $ 46 billion (£ 37.10 billion) in recent years. But an obstacle could become an opportunity: Modi can resort to Trump to participate in bilateral conversations on an economic association agreement aimed at reducing tariffs on both sides.

In recent years, Delhi has demonstrated a growing willingness to pursue Commercial offers. The Trump administration can be a more disposed interlocutor than the Biden Administration, which imposed strong environmental and work -related conditions in the new commercial agreements.

Trump can also ask Modi to recover more undocumented Indians. Since some estimates put the number in More than 700,000 – The third largest group of this type in the US. – This will be a difficult and delicate problem for Delhi to sail.

Last week, Indian Foreign Minister, S Jaishankar He told Parliament That the government was working with the United States to make sure that Indian citizens were not mistreated while they were deported after the reports that anger were chained.

Trump can also call Modi to buy more American oil.

In 2021, India was the upper destination For American oil exports, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine brought important changes in world oil markets and led Delhi to increase the imports of cheap oil from the nearby partner Russia. The price will determine how much Indian oil is willing to buy in the United States.

Modi can also come with his own energy asks: invest in Indian nuclear energy. Delhi is amended Its nuclear responsibility law has announced a new nuclear energy mission, in an attempt to sharpen international interest in fuel.

India aims to meet half of its energy requirements through renewable energy by 2030. Ask Trump to invest in nuclear fuel equals a happy and happy medium: it is cleaner than fossil fuels, but far away from Solar and wind energy that may not hit Trump administration as an attractive investment.

Technology will probably be discussed.

This was a rapid growth space for bilateral relations in the Biden era, thanks to the implementation of 2022 of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (Icet), that both parties see as a new cornerstone for the strategic association. Icet is destined to be directly supervised by the two national security advisors, to avoid bogging themselves in the bureaucracy, which means that each one must personally invest in it.

Modi will probably seek guarantees of Trump and his national security advisor Mike Waltz that they are still committed to this. Given Washington’s approach to counteract China by making India a larger part of the technological global supply chains, they will probably do it.

Also in the front of technological cooperation, Modi can make a launch for Trump to maintain the Visa H-1b regime. These visas for highly qualified foreign workers, highly criticized by some Trump Followers influentialThey have been granted to a large number of Indian technology employees in the United States.

Other countries can also arise during Modi conversations in Washington. Iran could pee out especially.

Delhi is associating with Tehran to develop a port in the city of Chabahar, part of a broader Indian strategy to strengthen connectivity links with Central Asia, through Iran and Afghanistan. But last week, the US administration published a presidential memorandum Skirting the Trump “maximum pressure” campaign in Tehran, which suggests eliminating sanctions exemptions for those who carry out commercial activities in Chabahar. Modi can seek clarity about what this means to Delhi.

Trump can also evaluate Modi’s position on a great priority of foreign policy: end wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Delhi has great interest in these wars. Modi’s position on the war in Ukraine, asking for the end of the conflict without criticizing Putin or Russia, echoes Trump’s.

The special relationship of India with Russia and nearby ties with Israel can drive Trump to see if Modi would also want to play a third party mediator role. Modi would probably feel comfortable to do it only if the parties are receptive to external mediation.

But despite some potentially delicate discussions this week, both leaders will want to maintain a positive tone.

In that sense, the Indo-Pacific Quad will be just what the doctor ordered.

Trump strongly supports this group that consists of the United States, India, Japan and Australia and focuses on counteracting Beijing.

In his first term, Trump raised the annual Quad meetings at the level of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Biden raised them even more to the level of the leaders.

India is scheduled to organize this year’s Quad meeting and Modi can invite Trump to Delhi to attend this.

According to reports, Trump He is not a big fan International trips, but India is a trip that will probably be willing to do: deepen your personal relationship with Modi and advance in a multifaceted bilateral association that extends far beyond transactionalism that will take the day in Washington this week.

Michael Kugelman is the director of the South Asia Institute of Wilson Center in Washington

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