High expectations for tax cuts and more jobs

Ghana’s former president John Mahama will be under enormous pressure to live up to voters’ expectations following his landslide victory in Saturday’s election.

He returned to power after eight years in opposition, running what political analyst Nansata Yakubu described as a “masterclass” campaign.

He defeated Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia by 56.6% of the vote to 41.6%, achieving the largest margin of victory for a candidate in 24 years.

But voter turnout was lower than in the 2020 election, especially in some of Bwaumia’s New Patriotic Party (NPP) hubs, suggesting that people there, disillusioned with his performance in government, stayed home in instead of changing sides.

As Mahama supporters celebrated their victory, Belinda Amuzu, a teacher from the northern town of Tamale, a Mahama stronghold, summed up their hopes.

“I hope that the new government will change the economy so that the difficulties will decrease. They should also prosecute corrupt officials so that it will be a lesson for others,” he told the BBC.

“Hardship” has become a common phrase in Ghana since the economy hit rock bottom in 2022, triggering a cost-of-living crisis that shattered Bawumia’s reputation as an “economic wunderkind” and led to his defeat. at the hands of Mahama.

Ghanaian economist Professor Godfred Bokpin told the BBC that the challenges facing the next government are enormous.

“What Ghana needs now is credible leadership, efficient government and efficiency in the delivery of public services. Without that, there can be no future,” he said.

Mahama has promised to reduce the size of the cabinet from more than 80 to around 60, but Professor Bokpin argued it should be smaller, while political analyst Dr Kwame Asah-Asante highlighted the need for appointments to be made on merit and not out of loyalty.

Mahama will be flanked by former Minister of Education, Professor Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, who will become Ghana’s first female vice-president when the new government takes office next month.

Dr Yakubu said her appointment was not “symbolic” and that she was not someone who could be “manipulated”.

“We have a fantastic first vice president, Professor Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang,” he told the BBC Focus on Africa Podcast.

Mahama served his first four-year term as president after winning in 2012, but lost his re-election bid in 2016 when Nana Akufo-Addo came to power with Bawumia as his running mate.

Dr Yakubu said Mahama contested the 2016 elections because of his track record in building roads, schools and hospitals, but voters rejected him as his mantra then was: “We do not eat infrastructure.”

But, he said, during the Covid pandemic voters came to appreciate the infrastructure his government had built, especially hospitals.

This, coupled with the fact that the economy had plunged into deep crisis under the current government, forcing it to seek a $3bn (£2.4bn) bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led to Mahama being re-elected. Dr. Yakubu added.

He told the BBC that Mahama would now be expected to deliver on his campaign promise of creating jobs to reduce the nearly 15% unemployment rate and alleviate the cost of living crisis by removing some taxes – or what Ghanaians call “taxes.” annoying.”

Mahama has promised to make Ghana a “24-hour economy” by creating night jobs in both the public and private sectors. He said he would give tax incentives to businesses to stay open at night and reduce their electricity prices.

But his critics have doubts, pointing out that Ghana plunged into its worst electricity crisis during his first term and the power outages were so bad that Mahama joked at the time that he was known as “Mr. Dumsor” – “dum” means ” off”. and “sor” means “on” in the local Twi language.

He has also promised to abolish several taxes, including the much-criticized electronic tax on mobile transactions and the tax on carbon emissions produced by gasoline or diesel vehicles.

Professor Bokpin said he doubted the Mahama administration could deliver on its promises.

“They haven’t done the cost-benefit analysis. There is no budget space to translate those promises into facts,” he said.

But Mahama is confident of proving his critics wrong, saying he intends to renegotiate the conditions of the IMF loan to free up money for “social intervention programs” in a country where 7.3 million people live in poverty.

In an interview before the election, Mahama told the BBC that the IMF wanted “a certain balance” in public finances.

“And then if you can cut spending and increase revenue and increase non-tax revenue, you can create a balance,” he said.

Dr Asah-Asante said Mahama’s experience as a former president stood him in good stead in navigating Ghana through turbulent waters.

“Of course, he is likely to encounter difficulties, but he has what it takes to turn things around,” the analyst added.

Mahama’s previous stint in government, as vice president and president, was plagued by corruption allegations, but he has consistently denied any wrongdoing.

In 2020, a UK court found that aviation giant Airbus had used bribes to win contracts with Ghana for military aircraft between 2009 and 2015.

An investigation was then launched in Ghana, but the Special Prosecutor’s Office, in a decision announced just months before the election, concluded that there was no evidence that Mahama was involved in corrupt activities.

The outgoing government has also been dogged by corruption allegations, including the purchase of ambulance parts at a cost of $34.9 million and a controversial national cathedral project on which $58 million has been spent without any progress. in its construction.

Mahama promised that his government would tackle corruption and ensure officials were prosecuted for wrongdoing.

“We are thinking about special courts,” he told the BBC.

Dr Asah-Asante said Mr Mahama should hold the outgoing government financially accountable during a handover phase so that “whatever has gone wrong, he can put it right” as soon as his government takes office next month.

The analyst added that Mahama, who will take office next month when President Akufo-Addo steps down after his two terms, had no choice but to meet the expectations of Ghanaians, or “they would punish his government in the same way they have punished the PNP”.

Mahama succinctly acknowledged this in his victory speech, saying: “The expectations of Ghanaians are very high and we cannot afford to disappoint them.

“Our best days are not behind us; our best days are ahead. Always forward, never behind.”