As Trump breaks the ranks with Europe, are Asia-Pacific allies the next?

Little more than a month after the second term of the presidency of Donald Trump, the United States foreign policy has turned, especially in Europe.

The United States has directed tariffs to neighbors, traditional allies criticized in Europe and He took a pro-ruse position towards Ukraine in a face of the previous administration.

When asked if the transatlantic alliance between Europe and the United States is dead, veteran investor David Roche, a strategist of quantum strategy, was unequivocal: “Yes … it ended.”

“Basically, the Trump administration is not interested in alliances, only agreements,” he said. “Trust has broken. You can’t have an alliance without trust.”

The question now is: what does that hold Asia-Pacific, especially the United States allies in the region?

Adam Garfinkle, former distinguished visiting member of the Singapur School of International Studies, wrote in a comment on February 24 that “Asian elites friendly with the United States should not assume that US assets will flow from being reduced in Europe to them in Asia.”

Asian allies should consider that a decreased global military footprint from the United States could make the logistics of US security promises in Asia more difficult, more expensive to administer and less credible, Garfinkle wrote.

The United States has Security treaties with six countries In Asia-Pacific, and has military bases in the Philippines, South Korea and Japan. Singapore, although it is not an ally of the US Treaty, has long -standing defense relations with the United States Army.

Garfinkle also said that Asian countries organizing US bases may not increase in importance or esteem, rather, they can face demands from major “compensated payments.”

“Nor should they assume continuity for regional forums such as Quad and Aukus. They must assume that all aid and capacity construction programs in their countries will end, and soon,” said Garfinkle.

The Quad refers to the diplomatic association between Australia, India, Japan and the United States, while Aukus refers to the Trilateral Security Association between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, these associations are not treated for mutual defense such as NATO.

Roche said the position taken by the Trump administration represents a “monumental change.”

“Whether you are South Korea, Japan, even Singapore, yes, you cannot count on the US to defend it … all those states in Asia, who implicitly or explicitly counted with the protection of the United States, cannot count on that protection and will not have that protection,” he said.

On February 12, the Secretary of Defense of the United States Pete Hegseth Said at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group that “the marked strategic realities prevent the United States of America from focusing mainly on Europe’s security.”

“The United States faces threats consistent with our homeland. We owe, and we, and we, focusing on the security of our own borders,” he added.

China has never resigned from its claim on Taiwan -What has been autonomous since the Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, fled to the island after its defeat against the communists in the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Chinese President Xi Jinping Greetings reunification with the continent as “A historical inevitability“

Roche said the Trump administration’s face in Ukraine drastically increases the risk of Chinese military action against Taiwan.

“The Chinese must now be convinced that if they block, let’s say, energy oil tankers go to Taiwan, that the United States will not go to war for this,” he said.

However, Bernard Loo, Coordinator of the Strategic Studies Program S. Rajaratnam for International Studies, said Taiwan will depend on his so -called “silicon shield” to protect him.

This refers to the idea that Taiwan’s critical position in the Chips industry would deter China’s direct military action, since Taiwan is the home of companies such as Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company and Foxconn, also known as She has the precision industryLoo said.

He also pointed out that, while China can have a stronger army, Russia-Ukraine war should have taught China that “war is really difficult.” He cites factors such as the land, the difficulty of replenishing forces for amphibious landings and unpredictable climatic conditions in the Taiwan Strait, including possible typhons.

“I think the last thing Xi Jinping wants is the war in Taiwan, simply because it is too doubtful,” Loo said.

In November 2024 analysis foot For the Asian-Pacific leadership network, Frank O’Donnell, Senior Research Advisor of the Network, said: “Trump’s historical approach at the price, but not the value, of US alliances and associations will form the lens through which its new administration sees the region to an even greater degree than before.”

This point of view will cause confrontations between the US and the key partners of the Indo-Pacific about whether Trump feels that they are paying enough “protection money” for the strategic cooperation of the United States and military implementations, he wrote.

In his first term, Trump said South Korea should pay more for US military presence there.

“This impulsivity and unpredictability of Trump can promote the states of the Indo-Pacific to begin taking the necessary measures to improve their defense and political autonomy of the United States,” O’Donnell wrote.

Roche said that something like an “Asian NATO” could materialize, focused on Japan, South Korea and Singapore, as well as Taiwan. Other countries in Asia can also align behind this entity, he said.

But in the heart of the matter is “the weakening of the credibility of the power of the United States on a global scale.”

“Whether it is South Africa, Zimbabwe, the Congo with its minerals or Singapore, the greatest effect is the monumental devaluation of American credibility as a currency,” Roche said.