High bets as Iran’s nuclear problem arrives at Crunch Moment

Almost a decade since the world powers sealed a historical agreement to limit the Iranian nuclear program, this is a crunchy time for Iran and the international community.

The country is now closer than ever to be able to make a nuclear bomb.

And the agreement, designed to prevent them from developing a nuclear weapon, expires at the end of this year.

“It is a real bifurcation at the time of the road,” says Dr. Sanam Vakil, of the group of experts based in London, Chatham House. “Without significant and successful diplomacy, we could see Iran arm or we could see a military strike against the Islamic Republic.”

The agreement, thoroughly negotiated for almost two years under the presidency of Barack Obama, imposed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for relief of the sanctions that paralyzed the country’s economy.

But after Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 during his first presidency and restored the US sanctions, they would gradually stopped fulfilling their commitments.

It has accelerated its enrichment of uranium, used to fuel the reactor, but also potentially nuclear bombs, for close to the degree of weapons.

Experts say that I would now lead Iran less than a week enriching enough material to make a single nuclear weapon.

Hence an wave of urgent diplomatic activity by the United States and the other five parties to the agreement: the United Kingdom, China, France, Germany and Russia.

A closed meeting of the UN Security Council discussed Iran’s nuclear program on Wednesday.

And China is organizing conversations with Iran and Russia on Friday in search of a “diplomatic” resolution.

“In the current situation, we believe that all parties must keep calm and restriction to avoid increasing Iran’s nuclear situation, or even walking towards confrontation and conflict,” said the spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Mao NO.

On Wednesday, a letter from President Trump was delivered in Tehran by a high -level diplomat of the United Arab Emirates.

The content has not been made public.

But President Trump, after imposing new sanctions on Iran as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign, last week issued a televised ultimatum to Iran: reach an agreement or otherwise.

“I wrote a letter that says: ‘I hope they will negotiate because if we have to go militarily, it will be something terrible,” he said.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatolá Ali Khamenei, seemed to reject the idea of ​​conversations with “intimidation.”

Likewise, publicly, President Masoud fishshkian, who had previously supported a resurrection of the nuclear agreement, in exchange for an end of the sanctions.

But the country has been sending mixed messages.

“There are camps within the country that favor negotiations,” says Dr. Vakil. “And there are camps that see the weapons as the best opportunity for Iran to manage their security.”

Trump’s trust is very scarce.

“They have seen their erratic and very intimidating approach about (the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr) Zelensky. And his extravagant proposals in Gaza and do not want to be put in that position,” adds Dr. Vakil.

They will hate the humiliation of having a gun in the head. But it is currently vulnerable, militarily weakened by Israeli air attacks last year, which is believed to destroy most of the aerial defenses that protect its nuclear program.

Israel wanted to get the facilities.

Iranian authorities continue to insist that the country’s nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

But the concern in the international community is becoming more and more acute.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (OIEA), responsible for monitoring the dying nuclear agreement, says it has seen Iran strengthen its nuclear abilities in different facilities throughout the country in recent years.

Its enriched uranium stock up to 60% purity, about 90% required for a weapon, is “growing very fast,” according to the general director of the OIEA, Rafael Grossi.

“The significant increase in the production and accumulation of enriched uranium highly enriched by Iran, the only state of non -nuclear weapon in producing such nuclear material, is of great concern,” says the OIEA in its latest report.

But the nuclear guard dog is no longer in a position to verify exactly what Iran is doing, because the authorities have eliminated the Oiea surveillance equipment.

Grossi says that diplomatic commitment to Iran, through any possible channel, is now urgent and “indispensable.”

On October 18, the parties in the 2015 nuclear agreement will lose the ability to impose the so-called UN sanctions “Snap-back” to Iran for violating their terms.

Then, the United Kingdom, France and Germany are wielding the threat of retreat sanctions now, hoping to exert pressure while they can still.

“We are clear that we will take any diplomatic measure to prevent Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, which includes the use of snapback, if necessary,” said the UN attached ambassador to the United Kingdom, James Kariuki.

Bets are high for Iran, and the world.

“If Tehran decides to build a bomb, it could enrich enough uranium for multiple eyelets in a matter of weeks,” according to Dr. Alexander Bollfass, who focuses on preventing the nuclear proliferation of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, another thought based on London.

However, designing and assembling a deliverable weapon would take several months to a year or more, he told the BBC.

“Iran is closer than ever to the capacity of nuclear weapons,” he says. “But it is not yet clear if you have decided to develop nuclear weapons or if you are looking for negotiation leverage.”