America’s Greatest Alcohol Controversy

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newspaper.

The author is journalist, living in Chicago

“The good old days of booze”. A neon sign glows in the window of one of the many pop-up bars of the year that fill the streets surrounding Chicago’s Wrigley Field stadium. The pop-ups are doing a roaring business, as Chicagoans prepare to celebrate the boozy holiday, New Year’s Eve.

They’re ringing in what could be a pivotal year in America’s biggest alcohol debate: whether Alcohol does more than kill us or let’s live? True believers from both sides face the agenda new guidelines on alcohol consumption: should Americans cut down on their drinking? Or is moderation healthier than not drinking at all?

Many young Americans are already voting with their sense of humor: The Pew Research Center found that the percentage of 18- to 34-year-olds who say they have ever drank has dropped. 10 points in the last two decades, from 72 to 62 percent.

And those who say alcohol is harmful continue to win the public relations battle. Gallup found 45 percent of Americans consider drinking one or two drinks a day – the current US guidelinesrespectively, for women and men – it was not healthy. That’s 17 points from 2018. Among 18- to 34-year-olds, 65 percent say alcohol is bad for health.

Overall, consumption of pure alcohol in the US “fell to its lowest level since 2002, after rising during the pandemic”, according to IWSR, a global information provider of alcoholic beverages. IWSR predicts that the US alcohol-free market will have a year-over-year mix growth rate of 18 per cent in volume between 2024 and 2028. “Soft drinks are becoming more common and people who drink them are no longer sticking out like a sore thumb,” says Carrie May, founder of the non-profit profit. Chicago AF, which promotes moderate friendship.

That’s probably not true during a booze holiday: when I tried to order an alcoholic drink, I was offered a tipple named after a child – or hot chocolate.

Researchers agree that most people make their drinking decisions based on personal experience rather than government guidelines that haven’t changed in decades. I’m teetotal now, but the guidelines are the same as when I moved to Washington DC almost 30 years ago – and brought so much South African wine that I was forced to get a liquor license. I didn’t wait for new direction to change my ways.

But recently, policymakers around the world have taken tougher measures against alcohol. Two years ago, the World Health Organization said no amount of alcohol was safe. Canada sponsored research that found “alcohol-related adverse effects” on the drinker or others are largely avoidable. two drinks a week or less. However, Ottawa has not yet adopted this guideline, and is continuing to publish it very high guidelines for “dangerous drinking”: three drinks per day for men, and two for women.

Ahead of the reform of alcohol recommendations in the US, “no money is safe” advocates are facing those who say moderate drinking has health benefits. The two opposing groups advise the government departments that will choose the direction for 2025-2030.

One of those groups, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, found that the evidence was “inconclusive” but still concluded with “moderate confidence” that moderate drinkers had less all-cause mortality and a lower risk of heart disease than who did not drink.

A separate panel is expected to issue its report soon — and representatives from both sides think it could provide evidence to support the much-reduced spending guidelines. The beverage industry is already looking for this. “If you dismiss the science and tell consumers that there is no safe level of alcohol consumption, you risk them completely ignoring the guidelines,” Amanda Berger of the Distilled Spirits Council of the US told me.

Orders for significantly reduced spending are likely to face political challenges. Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz spoke out last year about rumors of new limits, writing in X: “What about liberals who want to control every aspect of their lives? you? If they want us to drink two beers a week, they can kiss my ass.”

Back in Wrigleyville, the cannabis dispensary already has a long queue. Americans may be drinking less, but Gallup found American adults twice as likely smoke marijuana than in 2013. If it’s not alcohol, it might be dope.

However, we should not worry about what the government thinks is good for us on New Year’s Eve. There will be plenty of time for that in dry January.