Canelo, ‘Monster’ Inoue, Tank Davis and other not-so-accurate boxing predictions for 2025

By Frank Bay: The masses are clamoring for the boxing mega event of the year, Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford, in 2025. Well, not so much. Boxing hasn’t had a legitimate major crossover event since the recent Jake Paul vs. Circus flop. Mike Tyson and the mega-event Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis vs. 2023’s Ryan Garcia, who was rumored to have reached the tipping point of one million PPV buys. And let’s be honest, Davis vs. Garcia was not a mega event like the last true crossover event with the mass appeal of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.

Canelo is the latest of the PPV boxing stars as the success model changes due to streaming, such as the Paul vs. Tyson on Netflix. But the last time Alvarez hit the million threshold was against Gennadiy Golovkin in his second fight during the HBO days in 2018. Since then, Alvarez’s numbers have dropped and he’s only hitting between 500,000 and 650,000 reported PPVs. It’s only approaching a million, with Caleb Plant at 800k in 2021, which seems like about 20 years ago, considering the boxing landscape now without Showtime or HBO.

The fight is being discussed well and the fight Bud and Turki Al-Shiekh are asking for is Canelo Alvarez. But honestly, it’s not a mega event that would reach the 1 million gold standard, as all of Bud’s PPVs have failed without Errol Spence, and the reported fight with Israil Madrimov garnered a measly 150,000 PPV buys. Turki suffered a bloodbath at the event, reportedly losing millions even with a stacked card and an Eminem performance. The reality is that the fight is not a crossover fight and would probably max out at 750k PPV. The only other reality is a fight with David Benavidez, which would probably max out at 800k as it’s not a major crossover event as Benny’s PPVs have flopped big time, supposedly making 75k for his fight with Demetrius Andrade on November 25, 2023. .

The truth is that Álvarez is in no man’s land, and his options as an opponent of Dmitry Bivol or Artur Beterbiev are lower than his fight with Edgar Berlanga because, on the state side, Berlanga was a bigger name. I can’t offer a solid prediction as the future looks bleak for Alvarez and his choice of opponents for 2025. A fight with Jake Paul would be the direction as he could compete for the Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao crossover fight that boxing desperately needs. Alvarez’s current 168-pound division has decent fighters but no star appeal in Christian Mbilli, Diego Pacheco and unknowns in Osleys Iglesias and William Scull. No one would be willing to pay Álvarez more than $35 million to fight on PPV. If we want to get a MEGA fight between Bud and Canelo, Turki Al-Shiekh will need to contribute at least $100 million to capture the interest of the US market. If anyone can, it’s Turki.

Moving on to the A-list of boxing stars, we have ‘Monster’ Naoya Inoue and Tank Davis. The sad truth is that I don’t see any known opponents except each one becoming a true crossover star. Inoue, boxing’s number one fighter, has reached his limit. Maybe Top Rank envisioned another meteoric rise like Pac-Man because Inoue has the Asian market like Manny did, but he can’t advance weight class after weight class, which was never fair to expect from him. But if Inoue is going to have a breakthrough fight, it’s a Tank Davis, who exists in fantasy land. Inoue has good opponents in front of him at 126 with Bruce Carrington and Rafael ‘El Divino’ Espinoza. Still, none of those fights will enrage the American media like Manny did with his rivals Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Expect Inoue to play it safe in 2025 and set up a Land of the Rising Sun-wide showdown with Junto Nakatani.

Last and certainly least is Tank Davis, who did nothing to take his throne as the face of boxing after the huge success of his affair with Ryan Garcia. Beating Frank Martin did nothing for him after losing steam and taking a year off after being on a heater, and that fight is said to have had less than 200k PPV. With Vasily Lomachenko choosing to sit out and fix his back, Davis was left without a viable name to sell his PPV event. He decided to draft Lamont Roach and now, with multiple cancellations, people are wondering if the fight will happen in 2025. Davis should know he needs a big name in 2025, but there aren’t many except the man he already beat, Ryan Garcia. . The reality is that the other names are not stars like Ryan. Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez and Devin Haney are damaged goods. With Manny Pacquiao rumored to be returning, the obvious mega crossover event would be a fight between Pac-Man and Tank Davis. A fight between Manny and Davis would put Davis above Alvarez, but something tells me that Davis and his handlers want to play it safe like they always have. By not taking risks, you lose nothing.